Calibration & reliability
The engine is graded against D-ATIS ground truth at towered fields, with the ATIS deliberately withheld from the prediction. When the engine says 80%, is it right 80% of the time?
| bin | predicted | observed | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1–0.2 | 0.17 | 0.68 | 453 |
| 0.2–0.3 | 0.25 | 0.67 | 2183 |
| 0.3–0.4 | 0.35 | 0.61 | 4040 |
| 0.4–0.5 | 0.44 | 0.55 | 2941 |
| 0.5–0.6 | 0.54 | 0.68 | 60259 |
| 0.6–0.7 | 0.65 | 0.67 | 50850 |
| 0.7–0.8 | 0.75 | 0.68 | 35202 |
| 0.8–0.9 | 0.85 | 0.66 | 40998 |
| 0.9–1.0 | 0.97 | 0.68 | 67082 |
Brier score: 0.255 · calibration error (ECE): 0.157 · samples: 264715
Per-source health (24 h)
| source | ok | errors | p50 latency | last note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADSB | 30677 | 27652 | 181 ms | circuit open |
| ADSB_DEDUP | 530 | 0 | 37 ms | dedup rate 3.9% |
| D_ATIS | 286 | 0 | 184 ms | |
| METAR | 1138 | 2 | 191 ms | |
| NASR | 4 | 0 | — | 01_Oct_2026 current |
| NOTAM | 28652 | 0 | 54 ms |
Airport data cycle
Serving the FAA NASR 01 Oct 2026 cycle; that is the cycle in effect. Checked every six hours. Ingested 2026-10-01 04:12 UTC.
Corpus so far
- 572801 stored predictions (572801 with ATIS withheld)
- 1477929 detected operations across 687 airports
- 157866 archived ATIS broadcasts
- 1 pilot feedback reports